College Football Week 3

My picks have been off lately and I am not sure why.  I am pretty sure it has nothing to do with the head trauma that I have gotten over so it must be this new job which forces me to work instead of waste my days writing blog posts and analyzing each individual piece of each individual game.  In any event, I have spent my nights this week on the phone and analyzing statistical data which may, just may lead me to a .500 week in the third one of the young season.  But first some political talk.

Look, I am pulling for the donkeys over the elephants in an election that will be a barn-burner and probably come down to the wire.  It’s not that I hate John McCain, its just that I fear what rights I may or may not have in the next four years.  Beyond that, both parties suck, but the elephants have sucked a lot for the last eight years, I am not religious, I don’t own weapons, I’m not rich, I figure a woman should have a choice and I am not sure why the American army is in Iraq.  So I guess that sums up my decision.

People keep asking if I feel experience is important.  It’s obvious that I don’t.  While I am sure there is some protocol that a new president might have to learn, I am convinced the donkey candidate could pick that up.  In any event nothing will change that much either way (except for Americans losing more personal freedoms if the elephant candidate wins) anyway…….besides more blurred lines of church and state, supreme court appointees, and a greater disparity in the wealth gap.  Contact me in 10 years, then we can see if my opinion has changed.

But enough is enough.  This link is from the Daily Show, trust me I am not as “bleeding heart” as you may think, I just feel that this is funny.

Let’s review

1.  BYU- Washington:  I am pretty sure I saw somewhere that Jake Locker had a MAJOR injury and was out for an extended period of time.  It would appear that I must have misremembered this like Andy Pettite “misremembered” that Roger Clemens and him took a bunch of HGH.  Well Locker only suffered a “mild” neck injury last year and a hamstring this August, which I know isn’t 100%.  In any event, the game was apparently lost due to his non-excessive display of emotion during the final moment of the game last week.  My feeling is the kicker should still be able to make a 30 yard field extra point.

2.  Ohio-OSU:  While I nailed this one, it makes me very concerned about the UB Bulls chances this season in the MAC east.  I thought the East was going to be a cake walk.  Sadly, it seems that the MAC as a whole isn’t as bad as everyone (your truly included) thought it was.  The Bob-kittens played tough on the road with a backup QB.

3.  Arkansas blows.  Twice they have had to make daring comebacks to win it in the fourth quarter against sub par competition.  Where have you gone Houston Nutt?  Is anyone in Fayetteville wondering why they forced him out now?

4.  UB lost and didn’t cover.  They had every opportunity to take the lead and expand upon it.  Unfortunately there were too many penalties, the defense couldn’t get off the field and there were too many points left out on the field for the Bulls.

5.  Teaser:  Told you!

Picks:

Since our good friends at bodoglife provide us the lines for each game, I’d like to add an entry here from the Ultimate Decider of Justice about Bodog’s founder and corporate mantra: 

UDOJ

As in any good high school commencement speech, I’d like to start with a quote. “We all take risks everyday, but some of us enjoy them more than others,” Ayre says. “Change is a desired constant state for success.” Here, Calvin Ayre, founder of Bodog online casino/sportsbook/international-media-and-digital-entertainment-powerhouse (their verbiage) takes a simple concept and pulverizes it into a mishmash of incomprehensible, contradictory garbage.

The opening sentence seems relatively straightforward: it is impossible to live without risk (i.e. we cannot eliminate risk, but we can manage it), and some people like the risky (and, dare I say, risque) parts of being alive, while others do not. However, this declaration assumes that individuals are aware of their risks, or at least are arbiters of risk level, when it’s quite clear they are not. Take, for example, pregnant American women. Many have top-notch prenatal care and are in well-nigh constant contact with health care providers, who give them good advice like don’t drink, don’t smoke, etc. Most modern pregnant women take this advice as a given, and scoff at the notion that doing anything less could be the least bit responsible. However, if one were to break down the percentage change of birth defect/infant mortality for, say, eating soft cheese (very common advice) vs. driving a car while pregnant, one would see that driving in a car is far more likely to result in sweet baby-child problems than eating soft cheese, on an aggregate as well as per-population basis. Of course, the reply is, “I can stop eating cheese, but I can’t stop driving.” Oh really, Legspread McWhoresallnight? I thought we were looking out for the baby, not being expedient!

The point being, individuals are TERRIBLE at assessing risk, particularly long-term risk. So, it’s very difficult to tell whether some enjoy risks more than others, when most are unable to quantify or even identify most of their risky behavior in the first place. The second problem with the first sentence is the speaker: the guy who runs an online casino/sportsbook/international-media-and-digital-entertainment-powerhouse (their verbiage). The clear implication is that Bodog and Bodoggers enjoy risk more, and that’s cool and hep. However, casinos happen to be excellent at risk assessment (notice the piles of money and the shiny), so Bodog isn’t really taking much risk at all. In fact, Bodog is designing anti-risk, as the ideal betting scenario for a casino is equal money (or payoff potential/income) on all sides, with the casino raking in the vig.

In the second sentence, Ayre attempts to espouse the philosophy most famously constructed by Jean-Marie Dru in works like Disruption. The basic principle is that true profit and innovation are choked within a static marketplace. This applies in the macro and micro sense, so an economy unwilling to change is as vulnerable as an individual company, even a highly successful one. The idea certainly has legs, especially since it’s almost impossible to test, or at least to compare to a control. But Ayre is simply co-opting a newish and hippish idea for the purpose of seeming, um, newish and hippish.

Again, casinos have almost no incentive to be truly innovative, except as innovators of personal financial disaster (see: every facet of blackjack). Even the Vegas revival of the 1970s-80s (currently being imitated by Vegas), the change was only cosmetic as opposed to a true disruption of business practice and demographics. Ayre’s arrogant incompetence (I’m copyrighting that term; don’t use it) further shows in the juxtaposition of these sentences, with the result reading something like this: “Everybody is forced to take risks in order to live, and some people find fulfillment in risk. However, for an individual to be successful, his risks must be forever altering through a combination of choice and circumstance.” I trust that you are confused by that statement, because it doesn’t make any goddamned sense. The highest degree of success for the average person will most likely come from properly identifying limited risk and then repeating ad nauseaum, with minor and reactionary changes to new challenges. Along the same lines, don’t throw yourself into a brier patch and then off a cliff just because it’s different.

To put it more succinctly, fuck Bodog.

Lines by Bodoglife.com 

1.  Ball State-Akron +7

Ball State features an offense which can shred a lot of teams in BCS conferences, and yet they are only giving 7?  Laughable.  Akron did roll up Syracuse, but come on.  It will be a HUGE day for Nate Davis tossing the rock to 6′6″ monster Darius Hill and speedster Dante Love.

BSU 35-Akron 21

2. Central Michigan- Ohio -3 

Keeping things in the MAC, let’s go to Athens, Ohio where Central Michigan’s main man with Tebow-esque stats Dan LeFevor will lead the Chips to a win over the probably beaten down Ohio Bob-kittens.  LeFevor is the truth and I expect a big game out of him.  He runs as well as any QB in the nation and has an easy time finding his WRs.

Central 34- Ohio 28

3.  AND NOW FOR MY

Michigan -2.5 @ Notre Dame

I’ll take the Wolverines.  Chuck Weiss accidentally gave Rich Rod’s team some bulletin board material when he said “To hell with Michigan” during a booster club meeting this spring.  Instead of letting it go, he decided to clarify his remarks stating, “it was meant as a compliment.”  This was a reference to Bo Schembechler, but I am pretty sure no one on the Michigan team was alive when Bo was coaching so……

Notre Dame almost lost to San Diego St who lost to Cal Poly the week before.  The Irish looked downright sluggish as hell last weekend.  Michigan got the jitters out in the first two games says me and their confidence will continue to grow today.

Michigan 6 – ND 3

4.  Temple +7 @ Buffalo

Why is Buffalo being favored?  This is the scariest thing I have ever heard of.  It is ruining their Psyche damn it.  I have to take the Bulls at home, they have beat the improving Owls twice in the last two years.  This will be a tough one.  Bull fans will start to feel the “here we go again” fears in the second quarter when Temple takes the lead, but there is something to be said about this confident UB offense.  Temple is giving up yards in bunches and I expect a big game from “Big Game James” Starks and Brandon Thermilus.

UB 20- Temple 10

5.  Teaser special:  3 teams

Navy +8 over Duke

Clemson -15 over NC State

Cal -9 over Maryland

It pays 1.80 for every dollar.

Picks

50 on BSU

20 on CMU

50 on Michigan

10 on UB

20 on the teaser

Results

Last week 3-3

Overall 4-6

W/L imaginary $$$- -45

Overall imaginary $$$- 925