NFL Week 15

“Dr. Bob Has Your Remedy”

I am not sure how many of you caught The World Wide Leader’s new sports show “E: 60.” A month ago, they did a feature on a handicapper named “Dr. Bob,” who is 57% correct on his picks over his 19 years in the business.

While this doesn’t sound like a huge number, it’s not only impressive, but lucrative as well. To be a successful gambler, you need to be correct 52% of the time to turn any profit whatsoever. That extra 5% is HUGE when we are talking about people who bet thousands per game.

The intrigue surrounding Dr. Bob started in 2005 when Las Vegas casinos took notice. One week, casinos noticed large sums of money placed on very specific games. That weekend, the casino sports books lost record sums of money. Was something rigged? Were players on a mafia payroll? No, Dr. Bob was hot that weekend and his subscribers took home the loot.

But let’s back up for a minute. Did you say subscribers LWN? I sure did. Remember that shitty movie “Two For The Money?” The film with Al Pacino and dreamboat Matthew McCougnahey where “the sports advisers” gave you their picks each week. It’s like that. People can subscribe on-line for a fee and get the picks from Dr. Bob. The issue is that Vegas is now hip to the good doc. It’s obvious now that casino sports bookers know about the picks and with that information they slide the lines accordingly.

Interestingly enough, Bob is not a real doctor. He does not live in Vegas, he might not even bet on his own games. He is, in fact a nerdy college drop out who lives in San Francisco with his wife and kids. He has developed mathematical models which spit out the potential results for each game, which he sells to the public. He doesn’t even spend much time watching games. He believes that the eyes can deceive you, but the stats won’t lie.

He also views gambling as an investment, not a gamble. He doesn’t give you “locks,” or a “love of the week,” which is a mistake in my opinion. He simply informs you that you should be able to continue doubling your principle if you avoid betting in a streaky fashion. Simply be consistent and the picks and money will work themselves out over the course of a season.

For reference, LWN might be hotter than Dr. Bob with regard to the NFL.

Last season 29-21 58%

This season 30-23 56.6%

College Football

This season 39-36 52.6%

Last Season 24-24 50%

TOTAL OVERALL WIN % 54.3

HEADLINES

1. Ohio State Underclassmen Have High Opinion of Themselves.

13 Ohio State players submitted paperwork to the NFL this week. They are not officially declaring themselves eligible, just trying to gather more information about the potential that they might get drafted. This helps them make a decision before officially entering the draft. LWN thinks this may negatively affect Ohio State’s academic progress report….again. But we all know Darth Sweatervest is the Teflon Don in college football!

2. Pro Personnel Use “Gut Feel” to Predict Future NFL Star QB’s.

ESPN.com is running a story called “QB Growth Stocks” where they anonymously interviewed NFL front office types to gather their feelings on QBs. This is pretty much the reverse of the “Moneyball” strategy. In Moneyball the A’s front office used actual statistics and a “walk first” mentality, along with the idea that defense and speed aren’t important to make educated guesses on players. Read more about this in my next post.

3. Bobby Petrino Is A Mercenary.

I gotta give the dude credit. He has some balls. I am also somewhat surprised since he could have drafted Brian Brohm in the off-season. Jumping ship on a team during an NFL season to go back to college is nuts. I think Petrino realized early on with the Falcons that he has an ego and enjoys bossing around college kids. He also likes to have unfair advantages. Recruiting in college and setting your own schedule is much more advantageous that playing on the pro level and having an even playing field.

4. Hot Teams

The Bills are now 7-6 after starting 1-4. The Vikes are within striking distance now at 7-6 after starting 2-3. Seattle is a quiet 9-4 out west.

Not Teams

Detroit is now 6-7 after reeling off 5 straight losses. Chicago is now 5-8, Kansas City is 4-9, they have now dropped their last 6 since I said they were making the playoffs.

LET’s REVIEW

3-1 last week. I totally whiffed on Miami, the Bills looked good in victory. I needed some help in the Cleveland and San Diego games and I got it.

PICKS

1. Arizona +4 @ New Orleans

Why? Because even though both teams have injuries, New Orleans’ might be more significant. Also, I think a ton of points are going to hit the board. AZ gets a late TD to cover.

New Orleans 34 – Arizona 30

2. NYJ +22.5 @ New England

Call me a sucker, but 3 TDs and a field goal are a lot of points. I love the Jets at this spread. I hear it is going to snow in the Boston area this weekend. That will slow the game down.

New England 17- NYJ 3

3. AND NOW FOR MY

Baltimore -4 @ Miami

No explanation needed.

Baltimore 24- Miami 0

4. Bears +10 @ Vikings

I am still not sold on Tavaris Jackson. The Vikes beat Chicago on their own turf. Playing spoiler is a role that might fit this Bears team. Also, I like Chicago’s Adrian Peterson more than I like Cedric Benson. The Bears defense will probably have a scheme to limit Jackson’s mobility outside of the pocket.

Chicago 28- Minnesota 31

Imaginary Wagers

50 on the Jets and Cards

100 on the Bears and Ravens

Results

Last Week 3-1

Overall 30-23

W/L $- +175

Overall W/L $- +715