NFL Pros Use Guess Work To Determine Future NFL Stars

ESPN.com is running a story called “QB Growth Stocks“ where they anonymously interviewed NFL front office types to gather their feelings on QBs. This is pretty much the reverse of the “Moneyball” strategy. In Moneyball the A’s front office used actual statistics and a “walk first” mentality, along with the idea that defense and speed aren’t important to make educated guesses on players.

Granted this was baseball, but when you read below you will find the same stuff that was outlined in the book. In Moneyball, scouts for the A’s would say things like “He looks like a pitcher, he has a lot of potential, he has a stong arm.”

They made these claims with little statistical data and used “gut feel” to determine how well a player would translate to the MLB game. As you can see, the same thing was done in this article. The “stong buys” in this article were Jay Cutler, Tony Romo, Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer, David Garrard and Matt Schuab. The “holds” were Vince Young, Phillip Rivers, Derek Anderson and Jason Campbell. The “underperforming” stock was Eli Manning. Why do they love the “strong buys?”

Cutler- “I love him,” the AFC scout said. “He’s athletic, poised, smart, accurate — and there was just something about that kid coming out, the way he was wired.”

They also noted that injuries to key skill position players have slowed Cutler’s growth.

Romo- “If you put him in the room with great quarterbacks and broke down their qualities, you wouldn’t say this guy is No. 1 in any of those things,” the NFC personnel director said.

Romo has a great line, and good to great skill position players.

Roethlisberger- “We played him early in his career and I wasn’t impressed at all,” the secondary coach said. “I just thought he had a good supporting cast. I like him better after watching him this season. He’s a tough quarterback to defend because he makes plays out of the pocket. He’s getting better.”

I am pretty sure Roethlisberger is the youngest QB ever to win a SuperBowl. Does this not play a factor? Did these “pros” miss that?

Palmer- “From a mental standpoint and managing the game, I would put him right there with Tom Brady,” the defensive coordinator said. “He is smart and he can do what Brady does in terms of calling the offense on the line of scrimmage and changing things.”

No mention of Johnson, Housmanzadeh, and the talented yet troubled Henry? Do they not play a role in his success?

Garrard- “I think he is instinctive as a quarterback in his understanding of the big picture more than just trying to be a strong-armed guy.”

The old offense was built around the strong-armed yet slow Byron Leftwitch. Also, Leftwitch has a much slower release than Garrard. The Jags defense is traditionally strong which takes pressure off the offense.

Schaub- “Schaub and Cutler are the two young guys that excite me, guys that if they fail, then I don’t know what the hell I’m doing,” the NFC pro scout said. Schaub sat on the bench in Atlanta for three seasons even though “he ran the West Coast offense better than Michael Vick ever could,” the secondary coach said.

No shit. Vick was an electrifying athlete. He was never going to be a great NFL QB unless the Falcons turned into an option team.

Rivers- “He’s an accurate guy, but I wasn’t impressed with his arm strength,” the secondary coach said. “I was more impressed with his leadership and the other things he does, more than being a pure quarterback.

Last year Rivers was the next coming of greatness, now a borderline QB?

Young- “I can’t get over the throwing motion,” the AFC scout said. “At some point, you have to make throws from the pocket in the passing game. He’ll have some good games, but week in and week out, every week is chaos to him.

Once again, last year VY was a guy who “found ways to win games.” This year his throwing motion is unacceptable?

Campbell- He is a big, talented kid,” the secondary coach said. “He can pretty much throw any ball you need. They are probably taking it easy with him with the idea of, ‘Hey, listen, don’t lose the game for us.’ But he might be able to win for them with time.”

Well that sounds non-commital.

Anderson- “They are going to be an offensive team to reckon with even more than they are now once they get real confidence in what they are doing.”

Healthy Braylon Edwards, Kellen “I am a soldier” Winslow and Jamal Lewis may have something to do with that.

Manning- “I think he’s got good skills,” said the secondary coach, speaking before the Minnesota game, “but all the other stuff, the intangible stuff, I don’t think he has it. He gets scared when you get after him in the pocket. All the things you hate a quarterback to have, he has. And he’s not accurate.”

Since the pros can make snap judgements, LWN can too. Using their body of work and my idea of potential I will rate the same QBs, but first some commentary.

1. “Smart QBs” - One of the dumbest phrases ever created. Oddly enough, in graduate school we studied how commentators refer to black versus white football skill players. Whites are commonly talked about as “smart” while black players are called “athletic.” This trend continued during this article. Cutler and Palmer are “smart” Garrard, Campbell and VY are “athletic.” Only Roethlisberger and Romo were called “athletic” in some form.
2. More Eli bashing- I am not surprised, but Manning has been to the playoffs twice, probably a third time this season. The Giants have had HUGE injury problems the last two years. This season they don’t even have a true left tackle protecting Manning’s blindside. Why give Cutler the benefit? The Broncos could have been a playoff team last year. Shanahan pulled Plummer for Cutler, and they missed out. This season they are not going. So why give Cutler the nod over Manning?
3. How can you even put Matt Schaub on this list with his limited experience? He has almost NO body of work and hyped himself into a big money contract because the media saw him as a great QB.

Using W/L records, playoff appearances, completion percentage (NFL median is 65.2%) and TD/INT ratios I have compiled my own rankings. One point is awarded for each win over loss, one point is awarded for each point above the NFL average completetion percentage (career), one point for each playoff game played, and one point per each TD over INT. DRUM ROLLLLLLLLLLL………………………………………………………..

Roethlisberger- 45-19, 5 playoff games, 63.1%, 78TD, 54 INT 53 points

Romo- 18-7, 1 playoff game, 66.4% 54TD/17INT 50 points

Palmer- 30-29, 1 playoff game, 64.1%, 99TD, 60INT 34 points

Rivers- 22-8, 1 playoff game, 60.6%, 40TD, 25 INT 25 points

Garrard- 17-11, 0 playoff games, 60.6%, 31TD/14INT 18 points

Manning- 29-25 2 playoff games, 55.1% 72TD/61 INT 7 points

Cutler- 8-11. 0 playoff games, 63.2% 27TD/17INT 6 points

Anderson- 8-5, 0 playoff games, 57.1%, 31TD/22INT 4 points

Campbell- 8-12, 0 playoff games, 57.7%, 22TD/17INT -7 points

Schaub- 4-11, 0 playoff games, 61.3%, 15 TD, 15 INT -11 points

Young- 14-12, 0 playoff games, 56.5%, 19TD, 29INT -16 points

There you have it. The time has come for you to make your own decisions!